The Triple Crown Slump Is Even Slumpier Than You Think

On Saturday, California Chrome became the 34th horse to win the Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby, and thus the 34th horse with a chance to complete the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes, to be held June 7. Of the 33 previous horses that had such an opportunity, 11 succeeded — from Sir Barton in 1919 to Affirmed in 1978.The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown, which has a historical success rate of 33 percent. The current slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 — nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.Another way to assess the likelihood of the slump is to use the historical odds at the time each race occurred. For example, in 1979, when Spectacular Bid entered the Belmont with the Triple Crown at stake, about 52 percent (11/21) of such attempts had succeeded. The success rate for horses when Pleasant Colony entered the Belmont in 1981 was 50 percent (11/22). And before Alysheba’s attempt in 1987, it was 48 percent (11/23), and so on. (The results for this approach are below.)But the 12 races in question aren’t the only Triple Crown attempts to fall short: They’re the only ones we knew about at the time. What if time weren’t a constraint?In order, the Triple Crown races go, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Let’s ignore order. Since 1979, there have been five horses that won the Preakness and Belmont but came up short in the Derby — let’s call these failed “reverse” attempts. There have been two horses that won the Derby and the Belmont but not the Preakness — let’s call these failed “gutshot” attempts. (All seven horses ran in all three events.) This brings our total failed Triple Crown attempts since 1979 to 19.Between 1919 and 1978, horses actually converted atemporal Triple Crown attempts at a higher rate than temporal ones, winning their “final” leg in 55 percent of opportunities (33/60) versus 52 percent in the Belmont alone.Here are year-by-year cumulative odds for the temporal and atemporal slumps:Note that I used a logarithmic scale on the y-axis, so each gridline represents the event being 10 times less likely than the gridline below. From this perspective, the atemporal Triple Crown slump looks spectacular.If you think those figures seem ridiculous, let’s look at the odds posted by the favorites at the Belmont each year.The odds of all 11 horses that raced in the Belmont losing at their race odds (by chance) are only 1 in 20,000 —  about the odds of a random pitcher throwing a perfect game on a given night (and that’s not counting I’ll Have Another, who in 2012 was 4:5 to win but scratched on race day).Although historically comparable pari-mutuel odds won’t be available until the Wednesday before the Belmont, various online/offshore futures markets list California Chrome at close to even money.This seems high relative to the overall Belmont conversion rate of 33 percent (much less the dismal rate in recent years), but there’s good news for California Chrome in our analysis as well. Factoring in atemporal Triple Crown attempts significantly increases the chances that the present slump has a legitimate cause, but it also mitigates the slump’s impact on the historical record. Including our 19 failed attempts since 1979, horses have converted 42 percent (33 of 79) of such opportunities. read more

The original Echo Show Just 70 today only

first_img Best laptops for college students: We’ve got an affordable laptop for every student. Best live TV streaming services: Ditch your cable company but keep the live channels and DVR. Best Buy Originally published on March 6.Update, June 27: Renewed availability, lower price. Removed bonus deal.CNET’s Cheapskate scours the web for great deals on PCs, phones, gadgets and much more. Note that CNET may get a share of revenue from the sale of the products featured on this page. Questions about the Cheapskate blog? Find the answers on our FAQ page. Find more great buys on the CNET Deals page and follow the Cheapskate on Facebook and Twitter! The Cheapskate Now playing: Watch this: See It Review • The Amazon Echo Show is back and better than before See it Smart Speakers & Displays 2:16 Amazon Echo Show review: Alexa’s new touchscreen needs… $229 $229 See It $229 CNET may get a commission from retail offers.center_img Mentioned Above Amazon Echo Show Second Generation (Sandstone) News • Amazon Echo Show 5 smart display coming in June for $90 Tags Amazon Echo Show Share your voice No, that’s not what Alexa looks like. It’s an example of video calling, which you can do easily on the Amazon Echo Show. Amazon The arrival of new Amazon Echo products means price breaks on older Echo products. Case in point: The Echo Show 5 went on sale earlier this week, and today we have a huge sale on its first-generation predecessor.Today only, in fact, and while supplies last, Woot has the first-generation Amazon Echo Show for $69.99, shipped free for Amazon Prime members. (Everyone else pays $5.) Last time around, back in March, it was $99.99.See it at WootThe Echo Show is Amazon’s Alexa-with-a-screen product. You get all the voice-activated goodness of a smart speaker, but with a lovely 7-inch screen for watching videos, making video calls, checking the feed from your security cameras and so on.It’s not perfect, though, as you’ll learn from reading CNET’s Echo Show review. There’s a second-generation model that’s better looking and better sounding, but it’s currently priced at $229. (It’ll definitely see a discount on Prime Day next month.)Meanwhile, there’s also the new Echo Show 5, which sells for $89.99 — but has a smaller screen and speaker. If you want a bigger screen and bigger sound, the original Show is a tempting buy at this price.Your thoughts?Read more: Build your own Echo Show on the cheap 10 Comments $229 Crutchfield Dell Amazon Preview • Amazon gives Echo Show sequel sleeker looks and better sound See Itlast_img read more

White House NRA Congress Agree On Regulating Bump Stocks

first_imgTwitter users @ReutersBump stocks effectively turn semi automatic weapons into fully automatic.The National Rifle Association announced its support Thursday for regulating “bump stocks,” devices that can effectively convert semi-automatic rifles into fully automated weapons and that were apparently used in the Las Vegas massacre to lethal effect. It was a surprising shift for the leading gun industry group, which in recent years has resolutely opposed any gun regulations. Immediately afterward the White House, too, said it was open to such a change.The NRA announcement followed comments from leading congressional Republicans including House Speaker Paul Ryan that Congress should take a look at the devices, which were little-known even to gun enthusiasts prior to Sunday’s bloodbath. A gunman pumped bullets from a casino high-rise into a crowd of concertgoers below, killing 59 and wounding hundreds, apparently using legal “bump stocks” to increase firing speed from his semi-automatic weapons.“The National Rifle Association is calling on the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (BATFE) to immediately review whether these devices comply with federal law,” the NRA said in a statement. “The NRA believes that devices designed to allow semi-automatic rifles to function like fully-automatic rifles should be subject to additional regulations.”White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in response, “We welcome that and a conversation on that. … It’s something we’re very open to. It’s something we want to be part of the conversation on going forward.”President Donald Trump had discussed the issue with lawmakers on the way back from visiting Las Vegas on Wednesday, according to Rep. Mark Amodei, R-Nevada, who traveled with the president aboard Air Force One.“Bump stocks” originally were intended to help people with limited hand mobility fire a semi-automatic without the individual trigger pulls required. They can fit over the rear shoulder-stock assembly on a semi-automatic rifle and with applied pressure cause the weapon to fire continuously, increasing the rate from between 45 and 60 rounds per minute to between 400 and 800 rounds per minute, according to the office of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., who introduced legislation this week to ban them.The government gave its seal of approval to selling the devices in 2010 after concluding that they did not violate federal law.The endorsement from the NRA and congressional Republicans for a change in law or policy to regulate guns, however narrow, marked a shift. Inaction has been the norm following other mass shootings, including the Sandy Hook, Connecticut, massacre of schoolchildren five years ago, last year’s bloodbath at the Pulse nightclub in Florida, and a baseball field shooting this year in which House Majority Whip Steve Scalise came close to death. Sharelast_img read more

European Central Bank starts 12trillion monetary stimulus

first_imgThe European Central Bank has hit the launch button on its 1.1 trillion euro ($1.2 trillion) stimulus programme by starting to buy government bonds.The chief monetary authority for the 19 countries that use the euro confirmed on Monday it had begun the purchases, which aim to make credit cheaper, boost growth and raise inflation. ECB President Mario Draghi had announced the start date last week, sending stocks higher and the euro lower. The bonds are bought from banks and other financial institutions using newly printed money. Among the ECB’s chief concerns is low inflation – which at negative 0.3 per cent annually is a sign of the economic weakness that has plagued the currency union as it struggles with high government debt. Also Read – I-T issues 17-point checklist to trace unaccounted DeMO cashThe ECB has said it will buy 60 billion euros per month in government and corporate bonds through September 2016, and in any case until inflation turns convincingly upward toward the bank’s goal of just under 2 per cent. Yields on government bonds have already fallen in anticipation of the programme’s start. Some eurozone government bonds are trading at negative yields, meaning investors pay that government for loaning it money.One key effect of the programme is expected to be a weaker euro, which would help eurozone exporters. More euros in circulation help drive down the currency’s value, as expressed by its exchange rate. Also Read – Lanka launches ambitious tourism programme to woo Indian touristsLow or negative interest rates encourage investors to invest in a currency where rates are higher, such as the US German 10-year government bonds are now trading at yields of just 0.29 per cent, while 10-year US Treasurys yield 2.22 per cent.The euro traded at $ 1.09 on Monday, well down from just under $1.40 in May, 2014. Some analysts think it could be headed for parity — one euro for one dollar.last_img read more

Garments worth Rs 3 cr seized by customs

first_imgKolkata: Customs officials on Thursday seized garments worth Rs 3 crore after intercepting a trawler which attempted to smuggle out goods to Bangladesh through the Sunderban riverine route. An official said the department’s preventive and intelligence branch acted upon a report that fishing trawlers were being used to smuggle various goods to Bangladesh. “The route being taken by the smugglers was narrowed down to a specific area near Patharpratima zone in the Sunderbans,” said the official. Also Read – 3 injured, flight, train services hit as rains lash BengalActing on a tip-off, the department’s marine vessels with officers were deployed at Namkhana. They spotted the trawler early on Thursday. After being chased by customs’ officials for about 12 km, the trawler moved towards the right bank of Ramganga river and its crew jumped off it and ran away into the forest. “On a preliminary examination of the seized trawler, about 300 gunny bags containing garments worth Rs 3 crore were recovered,” official said. He said efforts were on to trace the owner and crew of the trawler.last_img read more