The Triple Crown Slump Is Even Slumpier Than You Think

On Saturday, California Chrome became the 34th horse to win the Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby, and thus the 34th horse with a chance to complete the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes, to be held June 7. Of the 33 previous horses that had such an opportunity, 11 succeeded — from Sir Barton in 1919 to Affirmed in 1978.The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown, which has a historical success rate of 33 percent. The current slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 — nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.Another way to assess the likelihood of the slump is to use the historical odds at the time each race occurred. For example, in 1979, when Spectacular Bid entered the Belmont with the Triple Crown at stake, about 52 percent (11/21) of such attempts had succeeded. The success rate for horses when Pleasant Colony entered the Belmont in 1981 was 50 percent (11/22). And before Alysheba’s attempt in 1987, it was 48 percent (11/23), and so on. (The results for this approach are below.)But the 12 races in question aren’t the only Triple Crown attempts to fall short: They’re the only ones we knew about at the time. What if time weren’t a constraint?In order, the Triple Crown races go, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Let’s ignore order. Since 1979, there have been five horses that won the Preakness and Belmont but came up short in the Derby — let’s call these failed “reverse” attempts. There have been two horses that won the Derby and the Belmont but not the Preakness — let’s call these failed “gutshot” attempts. (All seven horses ran in all three events.) This brings our total failed Triple Crown attempts since 1979 to 19.Between 1919 and 1978, horses actually converted atemporal Triple Crown attempts at a higher rate than temporal ones, winning their “final” leg in 55 percent of opportunities (33/60) versus 52 percent in the Belmont alone.Here are year-by-year cumulative odds for the temporal and atemporal slumps:Note that I used a logarithmic scale on the y-axis, so each gridline represents the event being 10 times less likely than the gridline below. From this perspective, the atemporal Triple Crown slump looks spectacular.If you think those figures seem ridiculous, let’s look at the odds posted by the favorites at the Belmont each year.The odds of all 11 horses that raced in the Belmont losing at their race odds (by chance) are only 1 in 20,000 —  about the odds of a random pitcher throwing a perfect game on a given night (and that’s not counting I’ll Have Another, who in 2012 was 4:5 to win but scratched on race day).Although historically comparable pari-mutuel odds won’t be available until the Wednesday before the Belmont, various online/offshore futures markets list California Chrome at close to even money.This seems high relative to the overall Belmont conversion rate of 33 percent (much less the dismal rate in recent years), but there’s good news for California Chrome in our analysis as well. Factoring in atemporal Triple Crown attempts significantly increases the chances that the present slump has a legitimate cause, but it also mitigates the slump’s impact on the historical record. Including our 19 failed attempts since 1979, horses have converted 42 percent (33 of 79) of such opportunities. read more

Sculpting tradition in modernity

first_imgHis inspirations from his predecessors have kindled in him the spark of creativity, where rootedness to living tradition acted as a point of departure, which has ultimately brought him to the creation of a series of sculptures under the title ‘The Babu, the Nayika and the Cat’ based on the urban-folk forms of the paintings famously known as ‘Kalighat Pat’developed in 19th century Calcutta around the temple of Kalighat. This series was first exhibited at the Indian Art Fair 2012 held in Delhi. Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’The bronze and fibre-glass sculptures displayed in the present show posit all the characteristic and visual philosophy of his works mentioned above.The lyrical lines, the rhythmic volume, the concentrated mass emerging out towards the dynamic outward surface from the still central core, creating the negative space through synchronization of positive volume, the rhythmic distortion of mythical figures from naturalistic conventions – all these aesthetic attributes of his works postulate his position as a modern and modernist sculptor emanating traditionally oriented contemporary values. Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with NetflixApart from the bronzes of mythical and humanist subjects of his well known genre in this show there are six pieces of his Kalighat Pat based works, four of which are in coloured fibre glass and two in bronze.In developing these witty, humorous, lyrically rhythmic yet socially critical forms he has displayed a kind of post-modern values in the evaluation of a defunct tradition and using it to transpire some of the intrinsic features of contemporary life.last_img read more

Samsung Announces Artik a New Platform to Advance Its Open Internet of

first_img Register Now » Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. 4 min read Attend this free webinar and learn how you can maximize efficiency while getting the most critical things done right. Free Webinar | Sept 5: Tips and Tools for Making Progress Toward Important Goals Samsung is obsessed with the Internet of Things (IoT). So much so, the South Korean tech giant says that by 2020, every Samsung digital device will be a connected one.To help push forward with that goal, and IoT in general, Samsung announced a trio of production-ready modules on Tuesday to be used in connected devices. Called Artik, they’ll be used in everything from wearable fitness devices to things like home servers and smart machines. They will be able to help entrepreneurs create IoT devices much faster than they would be able to do on their own, according to the company.“By leveraging Samsung’s high-volume manufacturing, advanced silicon process and packaging technologies, and extensive ecosystem, Artik allows developers to rapidly turn great ideas into market leading IoT products and applications,” Young Sohn, Samsung Electronics president and chief strategy officer, said today at the Internet of Things conference in San Francisco.Image credit: Emily PriceRelated: Out of the Loop on the Internet of Things? Here’s a Brief Guide.Often, IoT companies would custom-build the modules on their own by offering a solution like Artik, Samsung is essentially cutting out a step of the process and reducing the amount of time required to develop a high-tech connected device.Artik is an open platform, and while it will be used in some of Samsung’s consumer products it can be used by any company looking to create a connected device. The platform will be available in three different sizes — Artik 1, Artik 5, and Artik 10 — to fit a variety of different devices and use cases. It ships as a complete package with a processor and on-board memory, as well as integrated software and embedded hardware security technology.Samsung says the Artik 1 is the smallest IoT module form-factor available on the market, measuring just 12mm x 12mm, or about the size of a ladybug. The tiny chip connects via Bluetooth low-energy, and is designed to be used in things like smart bands and activity trackers. It packs a 250MHz dual-core processor, 9-axis motion sensor, and 4MB of flash memory.Related: IBM Says It Will Invest $3 Billion in ‘Internet of Things’ UnitImage credit: Emily PriceThe Artik 5 is about the size of a quarter and is designed to be used in things like drones and IP-based cameras. It has a 1GHz dual-core processor, 4GB flash memory, and has its own built-in video encoder and decoder. It can connect to your network via Wi-Fi as well as Bluetooth. The Artik 10 measures about an inch tall and packs some of the same power you’d find in one of Samsung’s high-end smartphones, with a 1.3GHz octacore processor, 16GB of flash memory and an HD encoder and encoder. Samsung sees it being used in media hubs and home servers.The developer kit with the Artik 10 inside will be available starting today.IoT isn’t a new goal for Samsung. In August of last year it acquired smart home company SmartThings, and at the Consumer Electronics Show this January it made a commitment to connect at least 90 percent of Samsung devices by 2017, less than two years from now.“As an industry we must join together to use the power of IoT to address challenges posed by issues such as aging population demographics, water shortages, increasing traffic congestion, pollution and major health issues,” Sohn said. “We need to create powerful open platforms that will harness the information generated by IoT to develop new insights and new approaches to meet the challenges we face as a society.”Related: The Internet of Things Will Have Arrived When You Don’t Even Notice It’s There May 12, 2015last_img read more