The Triple Crown Slump Is Even Slumpier Than You Think

On Saturday, California Chrome became the 34th horse to win the Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby, and thus the 34th horse with a chance to complete the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes, to be held June 7. Of the 33 previous horses that had such an opportunity, 11 succeeded — from Sir Barton in 1919 to Affirmed in 1978.The last 12 horses to win the Derby and the Preakness have failed to complete the Triple Crown, which has a historical success rate of 33 percent. The current slump is unlikely: The odds of it happening by chance are about 1 in 130 — nearly the same as the 2011 Atlanta Braves failing to make Major League Baseball’s playoffs with 18 games remaining and an 8.5-game lead for the wild card.Another way to assess the likelihood of the slump is to use the historical odds at the time each race occurred. For example, in 1979, when Spectacular Bid entered the Belmont with the Triple Crown at stake, about 52 percent (11/21) of such attempts had succeeded. The success rate for horses when Pleasant Colony entered the Belmont in 1981 was 50 percent (11/22). And before Alysheba’s attempt in 1987, it was 48 percent (11/23), and so on. (The results for this approach are below.)But the 12 races in question aren’t the only Triple Crown attempts to fall short: They’re the only ones we knew about at the time. What if time weren’t a constraint?In order, the Triple Crown races go, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Let’s ignore order. Since 1979, there have been five horses that won the Preakness and Belmont but came up short in the Derby — let’s call these failed “reverse” attempts. There have been two horses that won the Derby and the Belmont but not the Preakness — let’s call these failed “gutshot” attempts. (All seven horses ran in all three events.) This brings our total failed Triple Crown attempts since 1979 to 19.Between 1919 and 1978, horses actually converted atemporal Triple Crown attempts at a higher rate than temporal ones, winning their “final” leg in 55 percent of opportunities (33/60) versus 52 percent in the Belmont alone.Here are year-by-year cumulative odds for the temporal and atemporal slumps:Note that I used a logarithmic scale on the y-axis, so each gridline represents the event being 10 times less likely than the gridline below. From this perspective, the atemporal Triple Crown slump looks spectacular.If you think those figures seem ridiculous, let’s look at the odds posted by the favorites at the Belmont each year.The odds of all 11 horses that raced in the Belmont losing at their race odds (by chance) are only 1 in 20,000 —  about the odds of a random pitcher throwing a perfect game on a given night (and that’s not counting I’ll Have Another, who in 2012 was 4:5 to win but scratched on race day).Although historically comparable pari-mutuel odds won’t be available until the Wednesday before the Belmont, various online/offshore futures markets list California Chrome at close to even money.This seems high relative to the overall Belmont conversion rate of 33 percent (much less the dismal rate in recent years), but there’s good news for California Chrome in our analysis as well. Factoring in atemporal Triple Crown attempts significantly increases the chances that the present slump has a legitimate cause, but it also mitigates the slump’s impact on the historical record. Including our 19 failed attempts since 1979, horses have converted 42 percent (33 of 79) of such opportunities. read more

Tampa Leaders Look to Expand Tanker Mission at MacDill AFB

first_imgTampa leaders are working to bring KC-135 Stratotankers displaced from installations that receive the Air Force’s next generation aerial tanker to MacDill Air Force Base in an effort to demonstrate the base has the capacity to handle more aircraft.MacDill, which currently has 16 KC-135s, was passed over in 2013 to become one of the first bases to receive the KC-46A Pegasus. That competition would have brought 36 jets to MacDill, and local officials want to show that the base can support a greater number of aircraft, reported the Tampa Tribune.With MacDill already slated to receive eight additional tankers starting in 2017, base supporters are pushing to obtain 12 more. They are targeting the four bases in the running to host the first Reserve-led KC-46A unit — Tinker Air Force Base, Okla.; Seymour-Johnson AFB, N.C.; Westover Air Reserve Base, Mass.; and Grissom ARB, Ind. Additional KC-135s should become available from the installations that receive the newer aircraft.“When these bases get the KC-46, we want the KC-135s to continue to come here,” said Chip Diehl, a former MacDill base commander who now serves as vice president of the Tampa Bay Defense Alliance.Air Force officials, however, say no decision have yet been made about relocating the Eisenhower-era tankers.The area’s congressional delegation is spearheading the effort to show that MacDill has the operational and logistical capacity to accommodate more aircraft.“Our ‘MacDill Means Mobility’ campaign will not stop there and will advocate for KC-46s to be assigned to MacDill in future years,” said a spokeswoman for Rep. Kathy Castor (D). Dan Cohen AUTHORlast_img read more

Town Officials Brainstorm Ideas To Fix Emergency Vehicle Obstruction At N Wilmington Station

first_imgWILMINGTON, MA — Town Manager Jeff Hull updated the public on the town’s latest efforts to address the ongoing issue of trains stopping at the North Wilmington Commuter Rail station on Route 62 and blocking emergency vehicles en route to emergencies.Town officials, including Hull and Selectman Chair Kevin Caira, recently met with State Senator Bruce Tarr, State Representative David Robertson, and others to discuss the matter.Hull stressed the station’s ridership is extremely low, which is affecting MBTA’s desire to fix the situation.“On average, the number of riders inbound is 57 per day and outbound is 85 per day,” said Hull. “This colors MBTA’s approach to dealing to this. With ridership at those levels, I think there’s some trepidation about spending money on upgrades to that area.”Hull outlined two scenarios the town are currently exploring.“Right now, for every scheduled stop, the train does – in fact – come to a complete stop, even if people aren’t trying to onboard or offboard,” explained Hull. “The thought going forward is, when there’s no ridership at the station, for the train to continue to travel through at a slow rate, but not stop. This doesn’t solve the problem, but the train will be impeding travel for a shorter period of time.”Hull and officials are also looking into the Federal Transit Administration’s criteria that governs the requirements to making substantial upgrades when a platform is being redesigned. A redesigned platform could potentially allow trains to sometimes pull through without having to stop across Route 62.“There may be cases with stations like Wilmington’s where the ridership level is so low that there may be some limited upgrades that can be made without triggering a more expansive and expensive upgrade to the whole facility,” noted Hull.Wilmington’s legislative delegation at the State House will provide an update to the town in mid-February.Like Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email wilmingtonapple@gmail.com.Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedSELECTMEN NEWS: Town Comes Up With Fix For North Wilmington Commuter Rail StationIn “Government”THIS NEEDS TO STOP: Selectmen Outraged At MBTA As Trains Continue To Block Route 62 In N. WilmingtonIn “Government”SELECTMEN NEWS: Board Grapples With Whether To Eliminate 5 Daily Stops At N. Wilmington Commuter Rail StationIn “Government”last_img read more

Jr NTR rejects Bigg Boss Telugu 3 even after getting hefty remuneration

first_imgJunior NTR on Bigg Boss TeluguYoung tiger Junior NTR is said to have rejected the swanky offer of hosting Bigg Boss Telugu 3 even after the makers assured him hefty remuneration and he quoted dates issue as a reason for it.It is known that Junior NTR hosted the first season of Bigg Boss Telugu, which went on to become big hit with the audience. The makers wanted to bring him back on the second season of the reality TV show, but the actor could not return, as he was busy with Trivikram Srinivas’ Aravinda Sametha Veera Raghava.Star Maa brought natural star Nani on board to host Bigg Boss Telugu 2. He tried his best, but some section of audience trolled heavily and tortured him throughout this season. The upset actor declined to return to the third season of the show. The makers approached some popular Telugu actors for this season.It was reported that the bosses of Star Maa had approached Junior NTR for Bigg Boss Telugu 3, but he rejected their offer, saying that he wanted to focus on SS Rajamouli’s upcoming movie RRR. But it was said that they requested the director to convince him to make some time and he had agreed for it.Later, it was rumoured that the bosses of Star Maa restarted the talks with Junior NTR and agreed to pay high remuneration. The actor was said to have accepted their offer and would host Bigg Boss Telugu 3. But the latest we hear is that the young tiger has backed out, quoting the same issue of dates.”Although the makers were game to pay a huge remuneration to Jr NTR, the actor did not take it up. He was honest enough to admit that the dates of his film would clash. They are now scouting for a replacement for the show, which is expected to start in July later this year,” A source close to the makers told Deccan Chronicle.Junior NTR’s RRR is historical fictional drama on two freedom fighters. The actor is playing the role of Komaram Bheem, while Ram Charan essay the role of Alluri Sitaramaraju. He is all set to the shoot for his next schedule of the movie in Pune and Ahmedabad.last_img read more

Thailand freezes ousted Yinglucks bank accounts

first_imgFormer Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra greets her supporters as she leaves the Supreme Court in Bangkok on July 21, 2017. AFPThai authorities have frozen seven bank accounts belonging to ex-premier Yingluck Shinawatra over a $1 billion fine she faces for her administration’s controversial rice subsidy scheme, her lawyer said Tuesday.The move is seen as unprecedented because it financially sanctions an elected leader for a government policy and it is the latest in a barrage of legal battles she has had to fight since she was booted from office.Thailand’s first female prime minister, whose government was toppled in a 2014 coup, is already facing up to a decade in jail for allegedly failing to stop graft in the subsidy programme that targeted her party’s rural farming base.She was also retroactively impeached soon after the coup, a move that banned her from politics for five years.Yingluck’s legal team had petitioned for an injunction against the $1 billion fine—which dwarfs the roughly $18 million she has in publicly declared assets.But the Finance Ministry said Monday it was moving ahead with the order and planned to seize at least 12 accounts belonging to the embattled politician as an initial measure.Yingluck’s lawyer confirmed Tuesday that at least seven accounts had now been locked.“Bangkok Bank notified us that seven of her bank accounts have been frozen and cannot carry out any transactions,” Noppadon Laowthong told AFP.Yingluck, whose supporters have accused the junta of launching a political witch-hunt against her since seizing power, turned to Twitter to insist on her innocence.“I am ready to prove my innocence and that I have not done anything wrong in my closing statement on 1 August,” she wrote in reference to the final stage of her criminal negligence trial over the rice scheme.The verdict in that trial is due to be announced on August 25.Analysts say the junta and its establishment allies are bent on crushing the political machine led by Yingluck and her billionaire brother Thaksin Shinawatra, who was also ousted in a 2006 coup.The siblings are beloved in Thailand’s poor northeast but loathed by Bangkok’s traditional elite, who keep knocking down their governments with coups and court rulings.Under Yingluck’s flagship rice-pledging scheme the government bought paddy at nearly twice the market rate.It cemented her popularity among many farmers but led to huge stockpiles of unsold rice and cost Thailand its spot as the world’s leading rice exporter.Critics blasted the scheme as the latest graft-riddled populist handout by the Shinawatra camp, which has won every national election since 2001.The junta claims the policy cost Thailand around $8 billion in lost revenue.The subsidy scheme helped galvanise elite-backed protests in Bangkok that paved the way for the 2014 coup.last_img read more